To Struggle in Afghanistan or Submit to Certain Defeat

As the leaders of the 28 NATO member states meet in Lisbon this weekend to discuss the future of the mission in Afghanistan, the real issue at stake is the credibility of NATO's - and the West's - commitment to the War on Terror, so grandly declared almost a decade ago. I know this might sound like a exaggeration, but by setting a fixed date for the withdrawal of combat troops from Afghanistan in 2014, NATO is sending the signal to the terrorists that all they need to do to return to power in that country is to be patient. And that same signal will be heard the world over. The virtue of patience will be richly rewarded wherever terrorists hide. Just wait and the West will go away.

Fixed withdrawal dates are never a good idea, unless they are backed up by overwhelming forces in the time till then. If the objective of the invasion of Afghanistan was the removal from power of the Taliban, thereby denying Al Qaeda the support their main state-sponsor and the capture of Osama bin Laden and other high-ranking Al Qaeda members, then withdrawing in four years time only to have the Taliban return to Kabul will mean that the United States and NATO have suffered defeat at the hands of a rag-tag insurgency. No matter the way Washington spins it, no victory will have been achieved if this happens. The only way to achieve victory is by a troop surge reminiscent of the one in Iraq. But I doubt this will happen. Instead of sending more troops, countries are withdrawing already. They are tired of the seemingly unwinnable conflict. Naming 2014 as the deadline for troops to leave Afghanistan simply fits into this picture.

The BBC quotes a spokesman for President Karzai:

"A journey that has a clear sense of destination is a much easier journey than a journey into the unknown."

A fair sentiment indeed. Yet what is forgotten here is that the destination was known from the outset of the war, only the road to be taken was uncertain. The road now turns out to be harder than imagined and so the journey is being cut short before the true goal is reached. Per ardua ad astra (through hardship to the stars) used to be a noble sentiment but now it seems we will have aimed for the stars but fail to reach them. The hardship is apparently too much and the struggle is not worth it. So there won't be an increase in troop numbers and NATO submits to defeat in 2014 by setting a deadline now and this raises the question: why remain in Afghanistan at all if in four years time the West will leave whatever the state of the country? If victory matters not, David Cameron should follow the example of the Netherlands and withdraw tomorrow.