Dutch Labour Party in Trouble

It seems that the Dutch minority Government - made up of the (Classical) Liberal VVD, Christian Democrat CDA and supported in Parliament by Geert Wilders' PVV - is in total control of the political narrative and the main victim is the PvdA, the Dutch Labour Party.

According to a poll (Dutch language warning) taken over the weekend, if elections were to be held today the PvdA would gain only 18 seats in the Lower House of Parliament. At present they have 30 seats and they have been on the losing end for weeks now. The ruling parties, on the other hand, are busy gaining votes and would win 81 seats today against 76 at the last election.

Are we witnessing the catastrophic foundering of the PvdA? Maybe it's still too soon to say that, but with its leader Job Cohen struggling to find his role as a voice of the opposition, the party may have to sail the dark, broad seas for a long while still. And the Happy Isles are not yet in sight. In the same poll referred to above, Cohen was judged to have had the worst performance of all party leaders in the debate on the Government's Policy Declaration last week. Other opposition party leaders such as Emile Roemer (Socialist Party, SP) and Femke Halsema (Green Left, Groenlinks) had a much better debate. But even they are far behind Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) who got a 7.2/10 approval grade.

Volkskrant columnist Thomas von der Dunk writes (Dutch language warning) that the leftwing parties need to be much more assertive, much more aggressive in their attacks and opposition. He thinks that Cohen managed to do this, but I'm not too sure. It's all very well that he attacked Wilders on his proposals to stem the tide of immigration, but it's not enough. Cohen's problem might well be that he has the image of being a softy, whether deserved or not. People have trouble believing Cohen when he gets aggressive because of his history of moderation and dialogue when he was Mayor of Amsterdam.

So the PvdA seems to be stuck with a bit of a Catch 22. Either Cohen stays on in the hope that he'll grow in the role of leader of the opposition - without the certainty that he ever will - or  he is forced out. Yet that may well lead to a power struggle that is unlikely to win the PvdA any votes either.