The Gathering Storm on the Korean Peninsula

Today's shelling of a South Korean military base and surrounding civilian areas by North Korea can hardly have escaped anyone's notice. It is the last in a series of provocative actions by the communist Hermit Kingdom, which so far have consisted of cross-border exchanges of rifle fire and the torpedoeing of a South Korean naval vessel. In light of this, it is not unreasonable for the South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak to call for a stern - and possibly armed - response:

"Reckless attacks on South Korean civilians are not tolerable, especially when South Korea is providing North Korea with humanitarian aid," ... "As for such attacks on civilians, a response beyond the rule of engagement is necessary. Our military should show this through action rather than an administrative response" ... "Given that North Korea maintains an offensive posture, I think the Army, the Navy and the Air Force should unite and retaliate against (the North's) provocation with multiple-fold firepower," Lee said. "I think enormous retaliation is going to be necessary to make North Korea incapable of provoking us again."

Indeed, to attack a country's military infrastructure, not to mention the indiscriminate nature of the attack which did nothing to avoid civilian targets, is an act of war. Although in this case it is perhaps nothing more then a simple resumption of hostilities, since North and South Korea are still formally at war, the current situation being nothing more than a decades-long truce.

Nevertheless, South Korea should be aware that every response needs to be in line with the prescribed notions of just intentions, just conduct and proportionality under the just war theory. Furthermore, going to war with North Korea is not as easy as it should be considering the North's economic woes and the ongoing famine there. According to this Wikipedia article their armed forces consist of - if one includes reserves - almost 10 million men. Of course, North Korea also possesses at least a few nuclear weapons, which I don't doubt they will use as a last resort. And then there's China, which might or might not act in support of its erstwhile allies. All this should give South Korea pause and food for thought. Can they win a renewed armed conflict with their communist neighbours? If they, even for a second, believe the answer is no, then perhaps they should not start it in the first place. If, on the other hand, South Korea answers yes to this question, then today's attack is reason enough to go on the offensive. After all, given South Korea's overwhelming technological advantage, even the numerical imbalance between the sizes of the two armies should not be too insurmountable a problem.

As an aside, what does this potential conflict mean for Britain's decision to scrap its aircraft carriers? Con Coughlin writes the following in his Telegraph blog:

This morning’s deeply worrying eruption of hostilities between North and South Korea shows just how quickly conflicts can arise, and underlines the importance of having a carrier strike capability to respond to them.
Whenever Tony Blair was faced with an international crisis, his first question was invariably, “Where’s the carrier?” Gen Richards was himself a beneficiary of the protection afforded by carriers when he commanded the British military contingent that was sent by Mr Blair to intervene in Sierra Leone’s bloody civil war.
But if tensions on the Korean peninsula boiled over to the point where Mr Cameron felt obliged to intervene, he would find his military options were severely limited following what now looks increasingly like his reckless decision to scrap Ark Royal and her Harriers.

Indeed, in this case, an aircraft carrier in the area would have given Britain the choice of whether to put pressure on North Korea or, in the event of war, to at least back up South Korea. The presence of Britain and the United States in the area would also mean that China would have more to consider than its relations with South Korea and Japan should the Middle Kingdom intervene. It might even lead China to abandon the hepless North so as not to damage economic relations with the US, Britain, and through the latter, Europe. It is not to late for David Cameron to reconsider the scrapping of the carriers. HMS Ark Royals is still under sail and can be despatched to the Far East within days.